Blocked Transition: Corruption and Regionalism in Tunisia International Crisis Group Executive Summary The political consensus in place since the late-2014 parliamentary and presidential elections has stabilised Tunisian politics but is beginning to reach its limits. Despite the formation of a national unity government comprising the main political parties, the country suffers from a growing…
Venezuela: In a Hole, and Still Digging Phil Gunson Senior Analyst, Andes International Crisis Group Images of the bloodied face of Venezuelan opposition MP Juan Requesens, a vicious, diagonal gash across his left temple, graphically conveyed in recent days the lengths to which the government of President Nicolás Maduro appears prepared to go in order…
Looming Dangers One Year after Nagorno-Karabakh Escalation Magdalena Grono Program Director, Europe & Central Asia International Crisis Group BAKU, Azerbaijan — The room housing refugees in the former Soviet sanatorium just outside Baku was getting a much-needed facelift: new black-and-silver floral wallpaper “to make it more attractive to the future in-laws of my daughter who…
Kamuina Nsapu Insurgency Adds to Dangers in DR Congo Hans Hoebeke International Crisis Group The Kamuina Nsapu insurgency arose last year as a locally rooted conflict in the Kasai-Central province of the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), but has since gained intensity and is spreading to neighbouring provinces. By January, 216,000 people had been…
Fighting Boko Haram in Chad: Beyond Military Measures International Crisis Group Since early 2015, attacks in Chad by the Nigerian jihadist group Boko Haram have killed hundreds, displaced more than 100,000 and damaged the regional economy of the Lake Chad basin. Violence peaked in 2015 with suicide bombings in the capital and in the Lake…
Ethiopia Must Continue to Help Stabilize South Sudan Rashid Abdi Project Director, Horn of Africa International Crisis Group Ethiopia’s commitment to peace-making in South Sudan has been critical for regional stability. It has much to gain from continuing this engagement, including a secure border and trade with a stable neighbour. But achieving lasting peace after…
Venezuela Is Falling off the Map Phil Gunson Senior Analyst, Andes International Crisis Group Incoming U.S. President Donald Trump’s first foreign-policy surprise could pop up just a few hours’ flying time south of Miami. A tense political standoff between an increasingly desperate population and a dictatorial regime in Venezuela worsened in early January after the…
Oil Zone Fighting Threatens Libya with Economic Collapse International Crisis Group Libyans have seen rare glimmers of hope in recent months, with an uptick in oil exports and recent reverses inflicted on the jihadists of the Islamic State. But new fighting over the country’s oil crescent has upset precarious balances and threatens the country with…
The Islamic State Threat in Somalia’s Puntland State International Crisis Group On 26 October, about more than 50 heavily-armed Somali Islamic State (IS) fighters seized Qandala, a sparsely populated town in Somalia’s Puntland federal state on a rugged mountainous coastal strip overlooking the Gulf of Aden. It was a small, but highly symbolic, step forward…
African Powers Must Support Democracy in DR Congo Richard Moncrieff Project Director, Central Africa International Crisis Group African leaders meeting in Luanda this week got part of the way to solving the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) political crisis, endorsing a proposed sixteen-month delay for the DRC’s presidential election. But to ensure the frustration of…
Crisis-hit Venezuela’s Political Rivals Stumble Towards Talks Phil Gunson Senior Analyst, Andes International Crisis Group High on the slopes of the mountain that separates Caracas from the Caribbean, three capital letters, vertically arranged, have recently lit up at night. From most parts of the Venezuelan capital you need binoculars to pick out the word PAZ…
After Libya’s Oil Grab, Compromise Could Lead to a Restart of Exports Senior Libya analyst Claudia Gazzini International Crisis Group What has happened on the ground in Libya? Key crude oil export terminals in eastern Libya were seized on 11 September by General Khalifa Haftar’s Libya National Army (LNA). This is a force opposed to…
The Philippines’ Misguided Plan to Stop South China Sea Tensions International Crisis Group Former Philippine president Fidel Ramos was in Hong Kong earlier this month to meet his “old friends” in hopes of breaking ice with Beijing. In a statement issued Thursday, Ramos and his interlocutors, including prominent Chinese diplomat Fu Ying, said they discussed…
Slow-motion Coup in Venezuela? Phil Gunson – Senior Analyst, Andes International Crisis Group In recent weeks Nicolás Maduro appears to have taken a back seat to Venezuela’s top general, defence minister Vladimir Padrino López, who also – unusually – holds the post of operational commander of the armed forces. On 11 July, Maduro announced that he…
The Struggle with Islamic State that Turkey Hoped to Avoid Contributors: Nigar Goksel, Berkay Mandiraci, and Ekaterina Sokirianskaia International Crisis Group Turkey has blamed the so-called Islamic State (IS) for the triple suicide gun and bomb assault on Istanbul airport on 28 June that killed 45 people. Some of the gunmen had family links to…
Zimbabwe’s Threadbare Theatre of Reform Piers Pigou Senior Consultant, Southern Africa International Crisis Group Zimbabweans are slowing rediscovering the courage to speak out as Zimbabwe’s much-vaunted reform process is consumed by insincerity, slow-burn crisis, and infighting over the succession to 92-year-old President Robert Mugabe. Complementing growing opposition activity, recent weeks have seen a rash of…
Venezuela: Edge of the Precipice International Crisis Group The full briefing is also available in: español OVERVIEW In December 2015, President Nicolás Maduro immediately recognised the opposition Democratic Unity (MUD) coalition’s resounding legislative election victory. For the first time in over sixteen years, the prospect arose of political cohabitation between the alliance led by the ruling…
Nagorno-Karabakh: New Opening, or More Peril? Europe Report N°239 4 Jul 2016 International Crisis Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The pattern of military escalation on the Armenia-Azerbaijan border and Line of Contact (LoC) around Nagorno-Karabakh (NK) since at least 2011 meant it should not have been the surprise it was when major fighting broke out…
Pakistan’s Jihadist Heartland: Southern Punjab International Crisis Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Southern Punjab must be central to any sustainable effort to counter jihadist violence within and beyond Pakistan’s borders, given the presence of militant groups with local, regional and transnational links and an endless source of recruits, including through large madrasa and mosque networks.…
South Sudan’s South: Conflict in the Equatorias International Crisis Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The formation of a transitional government following Riek Machar’s return to Juba in April marked the most significant milestone of the August 2015 Agreement on the Resolution of the Conflict in the Republic of South Sudan (ARCSS) that ended the twenty-month…
Venezuela on the Edge International Crisis Group The 6 December parliamentary election in which the Venezuelan opposition won a landslide victory and a two-thirds legislative majority, combined with the ongoing economic meltdown, should have encouraged a more conciliatory stance by the government and a mutual search for a basic political agreement. But it has not,…
Stirring up the South China Sea (IV): Oil in Troubled Waters International Crisis Group This report is also available in: Chinese EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The South China Sea’s hydrocarbon resources are hotly contested though its reserves are unproven. While their potential economic benefit may be considerable, their foremost significance is political, as their division has…
A Sisyphean Task? Resuming Turkey-PKK Peace Talks International Crisis Group OVERVIEW Locked in their deadliest violence in two decades, the Turkish state and the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) should urgently resume peace talks. The return to a military-based approach to the conflict and domestic political polarisation, fuelled by a spillover of the Syrian conflict, have…
Winning the War on Polio in Pakistan International Crisis Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS As the world marks Polio Day on 24 October, Pakistan remains the greatest impediment to a polio-free world. It has more cases than any other country, reflecting dual policy failures: to prioritise citizens’ health and to curb violent extremism. Despite signs…
The Politics behind the Ebola Crisis International Crisis Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS At the Ebola epidemic’s height in mid-2014, there were concerns social order in Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone could collapse. International mobilisation, notably after the UN Security Council declared the epidemic “a threat to peace and security” on 18 September, brought an…
Disappeared: Justice Denied in Mexico’s Guerrero State International Crisis Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS The Executive Summary is also available in: Spanish Horrific, unpunished human rights violations have blurred the lines between politics, government and crime in Mexico’s south-western Guerrero state. Drug gangs not only control the illegal heroin industry and prey on ordinary citizens…
The Central Sahel: A Perfect Sandstorm International Crisis Group EXECUTIVE SUMMARY The huge, sparsely populated, impoverished Sahel is affected by growing numbers of jihadi extremists and illicit activities, including arms, drugs and human trafficking, estimated to generate $3.8 billion annually. Borders are porous, government reach limited. Populations and unemployment are soaring. Within this perfect storm…
Central African Republic: The roots of violence Africa Report N°230 International Crisis Group The full report is currently available in: French. EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS Crisis in the Central African Republic (CAR) is longterm and characterised by sporadic surges of violence against a backdrop of state disintegration, a survival economy and deep inter-ethnic cleavages. Armed…
Myanmar’s Peace Process: A Nationwide Ceasefire Remains Elusive International Crisis Group OVERVIEW After more than six decades of internal armed conflict, the next four weeks could be decisive for Myanmar’s peace process. The process, which was launched in August 2011, enjoyed significant initial success, as bilateral ceasefires were agreed with more than a dozen ethnic…
North Caucasus: The Challenges of Integration (IV): Economic and Social Imperatives International Crisis Group This report is also available in: Russian EXECUTIVE SUMMARY AND RECOMMENDATIONS For two decades the North Caucasus conflict has been among Europe’s deadliest. Victims are less, 1,149 killed or wounded in 2013 to 525 in 2014, but risks associated with growing…
Venezuela: Unnatural Disaster International Crisis Group OVERVIEW The accelerating deterioration of Venezuela’s political crisis is cause for growing concern. The collapse in 2014 of an incipient dialogue between government and opposition ushered in growing political instability. With legislative elections due in December, there are fears of renewed violence. But there is a less widely appreciated…
Burundi: Peace Sacrificed? International Crisis Group Africa Briefing OVERVIEW Despite the failed coup attempt on 13 May, popular mobilisation against outgoing President Pierre Nkurunziza’s third term has not abated, and confrontation between the government and the “Halte au troisième mandat” (Stop the Third Mandate) street movement is intensifying. Over 90,000 Burundians have fled and a…
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