Brazil Election: Lula Defies the Odds to Secure Historic Fourth Term
Kanako Mita, Michiyo Tanabe, and Sawako Utsumi
Modern Tokyo Times
The incumbent President of Brazil, Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, has emerged victorious once again, securing a historic fourth, non-consecutive term in office. The result appeared far from certain three weeks ago, when Lula trailed Flávio Bolsonaro by approximately 2.2 million votes in the first round. However, with neither candidate obtaining more than 50% of the vote, a second round became necessary. It was here that the political landscape shifted decisively in Lula’s favour.
History appeared to favour Bolsonaro. Since democracy returned to Brazil in the 1980s, no candidate had secured the presidency after finishing second in the first round. Bolsonaro therefore had considerable reason to believe that the historical pattern would continue. Yet Lula overturned this precedent, demonstrating the importance of voter mobilisation, political alliances, and the ability of an established political figure to regain momentum during a closely contested campaign.
With 100% of votes counted, Lula obtained 51.79% (64,255,969 votes), compared with Bolsonaro’s 48.21% (59,826,002). Accordingly, Lula transformed his first-round deficit into a decisive second-round victory, exceeding the expectations of many political observers (even if they believed Lula could win).
The Guardian reports, “Brazilian president Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva has staged a dramatic election fightback and defeated his far-right opponent Flávio Bolsonaro to claim a historic fourth term in power.”
However, the political consequences of the election extend beyond the result itself. Bolsonaro refused to concede defeat and indicated that he would seek to have the runoff annulled. His objections centred on the decision by Supreme Court Justice Cristiano Zanin to extend voting by two hours. Bolsonaro described the decision as “unacceptable.” The extension followed concerns surrounding transport difficulties that could have affected voters’ access to polling stations.
Senator Bolsonaro said on Sunday that he would not concede defeat to Lula, who secured a fourth non-consecutive term, and would seek the annulment of the runoff election.
Nevertheless, a demand for annulment is not, in itself, evidence that an election was invalid. Any challenge must be assessed through Brazil’s legal and electoral institutions, with the evidence and applicable law determining the outcome. The wider political significance is clear: Brazil’s democratic stability depends not only on competitive elections but also on whether political leaders and their supporters respect the established process for resolving disputes.
The younger Bolsonaro is following a path familiar from his father, Jair Bolsonaro, who also refused to accept his defeat to Lula in 2022. However, the circumstances of the present election must be assessed on their own merits. Given Lula’s substantial lead, overturning the result would be a formidable legal undertaking. For Bolsonaro, accepting the democratic outcome and concentrating on his political future would provide a more constructive path towards any future presidential ambitions.
Regional leaders have already acknowledged Lula’s victory, reflecting the importance of continuity and political cooperation across Latin America. President Rodrigo Paz of Bolivia stated: “Bolivia and Brazil are neighboring and brother countries, united by a shared history and common challenges. We will continue working together to strengthen our relationship and generate more opportunities for our nations.”
Other regional leaders also praised Lula’s victory. President José Raúl Mulino of Panama, echoing similar messages from across the region, declared: “I congratulate the Brazilian people for this democratic day and especially President Lula for the victory!”
Such responses matter because Brazil is Latin America’s largest economy and a major diplomatic actor. Its political direction influences regional cooperation, trade, environmental policy, and relations with international powers. Lula’s victory therefore represents more than a domestic political setback for the Bolsonaro camp; it preserves the opportunity for Brazil to continue pursuing its existing diplomatic priorities, including a more independent international position and closer cooperation with governments that share its approach to regional affairs.
Lee Jay Walker – Modern Tokyo Times analyst – said: “Lula will turn 81 on October 27, and questions surrounding age and political succession were part of the wider debate. Yet the veteran politician, born into poverty and shaped by his experience as a metalworker and trade union leader, has built a political career around social mobility and the struggles of working people. His electoral recovery reflected the continued strength of a loyal support base, alongside his ability to mobilise voters who wanted to prevent a Bolsonaro return to the presidency.”
Lula thanked the “generosity of Brazilian people” and paid tribute to younger Brazilians who, he said, “went to the streets to defend Brazilian democracy.” His comments underline the importance of political participation beyond election day. Younger voters and grassroots mobilisation helped shape the campaign, although the longer-term challenge will be to translate electoral enthusiasm into durable public confidence and effective government.
Yet Lula faces substantial obstacles. Brazil remains politically divided, and his administration will have to contend with a Congress in which opposing political forces possess considerable influence. A presidential victory does not automatically provide the legislative support necessary to implement a programme of economic and social reform. Negotiation, compromise, and the construction of workable parliamentary alliances will therefore be central to the next phase of his presidency.
The BBC reports, “With a largely hostile Congress, this fight just may prove much harder for the veteran leader – who will be 85 by the end of his fourth term – than in his three previous terms in office.”
This institutional challenge may prove as consequential as the election itself. Lula will need to demonstrate that his administration can address the concerns of Brazilians across the political spectrum, including the cost of living, public security, economic opportunity, and the future of public services. Failure to deliver tangible improvements could deepen existing divisions, while excessive political confrontation would make cooperation even more difficult.
Despite these challenges, Lula and his supporters have reason to feel relieved after a hard-fought election. The result confirms that Brazil’s electorate remains deeply divided, but it also demonstrates that the political direction of Latin America’s largest country is not predetermined by the outcome of a first round or by broader regional ideological trends.
Now comes the difficult part. Lula must convert his electoral victory into effective governance while navigating a divided legislature, competing social demands, and an increasingly complex international environment. Without his victory, Brazil’s internal political balance and regional diplomatic direction could have developed very differently.
For Lula and his supporters, the result also provides renewed momentum for their hope that the political tide will turn more “left-wing” across Latin America. Whether that aspiration becomes a wider regional trend remains uncertain. What is clear is that Brazil’s election has reinforced the continuing contest between left-wing and right-wing political movements, while placing the responsibilities of democratic government, institutional stability, and national cohesion firmly before the victorious president.
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