Ethiopia: Centralized Power, Federal Tensions and Geopolitical Fault Lines
Kanako Mita, Sawako Utsumi, and Lee Jay Walker
Modern Tokyo Times
The leadership of Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has become increasingly defined by the struggle between centralized state power and Ethiopia’s competing ethnic, regional, and political interests. At the heart of this crisis lies a fundamental question of governance: can Ethiopia’s federal system accommodate regional autonomy and political pluralism among its many communities, or will political and security power increasingly become concentrated in the hands of the central government?
This question extends far beyond domestic politics. Ethiopia is one of Africa’s most strategically important states, with a population exceeding 100 million, a pivotal geographical position in the Horn of Africa, and considerable influence over the politics of the wider region. Consequently, instability inside Ethiopia does not remain confined within its borders. Ethiopia shares sensitive relationships and borders with Eritrea, Sudan, South Sudan, Kenya, Somalia, and Djibouti, while its longstanding dispute with Egypt over the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam (GERD) places its internal stability within a broader regional geopolitical framework.
The consequences of Ethiopia’s struggle over political and territorial authority have been devastating. In Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and other parts of the country, communities have experienced armed conflict, displacement, and allegations of serious human rights violations over many years. Reports of extrajudicial killings attributed to government forces have further intensified concerns about accountability and the expanding role of military power in addressing political grievances. The Ethiopian government and opposing armed groups, however, present competing narratives concerning responsibility, security, and the origins of violence.
The concentration of political and security authority is particularly significant within Ethiopia’s federal structure. The country’s political system was constructed around ethnic federalism, giving considerable constitutional recognition to regional identities and interests. Accordingly, tensions between Addis Ababa and regional political forces are not simply disputes between individual political actors. They concern the distribution of sovereignty, resources, security authority, and political influence within one of Africa’s most strategically important states.
These domestic tensions are increasingly intertwined with the geopolitics of the Horn of Africa. Ethiopia has accused external powers of supporting forces seeking to weaken the central government. Egypt has been repeatedly drawn into Ethiopian political discourse because of the wider dispute surrounding the Nile and the GERD, while instability in neighbouring Sudan provides another potential avenue through which regional rivalries can become connected to Ethiopia’s internal conflicts. Egypt denies involvement in the Ethiopian conflict, while Sudanese actors have also been accused by Ethiopian officials of supporting armed groups.
Al Jazeera reports, “Ethiopia’s army commander has accused Sudan and Egypt of backing armed groups fighting its troops in the north of the country after heavy clashes resumed between the Tigray People’s Liberation Front (TPLF) and the federal government.”
Field Marshal Birhanu Jula of Ethiopia insisted that the armed forces were “fighting forces that are organized and allied to serve the interests of external forces.”
He went further by adding that recent forces that have united against the central government of Ethiopia are “backed, supported and supplied by Sudan, Egypt and other external powers (Eritrea).”
AP News reports, “The head of Ethiopia’s army suggested that neighboring Eritrea, Sudan and Egypt were supporting rebel troops who have captured several strategic towns in renewed fighting in the north, drawing denials as the threat of a widening regional conflict grew on Monday.”
Nader Zaki, spokesperson at the Foreign Ministry of Egypt, denied any involvement in the conflict in Ethiopia. He said, “The Egyptian foreign policy is based on firm principles, foremost among which is respect for the sovereignty of states and the unity and territorial integrity thereof, and non-interference in the internal affairs of other countries… Accordingly, any claims that cast doubt on Egypt’s commitment to these entrenched principles are null and void.”
These competing accusations are important because the Horn of Africa is already experiencing multiple overlapping security crises. Sudan remains engulfed in a devastating war between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), while Eritrea and Ethiopia continue to carry the legacy of their previous wars and the Tigray conflict. At the same time, the Red Sea has become an increasingly important arena involving regional states and external powers. Any substantial deterioration inside Ethiopia therefore risks creating consequences well beyond the immediate battlefield.
The renewed escalation in parts of Tigray illustrates these dangers. On September 23, Tigrayan forces seized control of Mekelle’s regional airport from federal police, while Ethiopian Airlines suspended flights to Mekelle, Axum, and Shire. Hence, the national carrier stated that it “suspended flights to Tigray’s capital Mekelle and the cities of Axum and Shire ‘due to the current situation,’ without providing further details.”
Since then, bloodshed has continued after Ethiopian armed forces counterattacked in several parts of Tigray. Renewed fighting consequently threatens to reopen wounds from the devastating Tigray War and create another major destabilizing force within the Horn of Africa.
Ethiopia’s crisis also demonstrates how the concentration of political power can produce opposition across former political and military divisions. The TPLF, Amhara nationalist Fano militias, and the Oromo Liberation Army (OLA) have historically been associated with different regional interests and, in some cases, opposing positions on the battlefield. Yet seven armed and opposition groups recently announced an alliance directed against the government of Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed.
This development is geopolitically significant because it suggests that Ethiopia’s internal political fragmentation cannot simply be understood through one ethnic or regional confrontation. Different actors with divergent historical grievances can temporarily converge when they share opposition to the centralization of political authority. Such alliances may remain fragile, but their emergence illustrates the difficulty of maintaining centralized authority across a country possessing profound regional, ethnic, political, and historical divisions.
There is also a wider strategic dimension. Ethiopia’s position gives it enormous importance for the future of the Horn of Africa. Addis Ababa is a major diplomatic centre and hosts the headquarters of the African Union, while Ethiopia’s relationships with Eritrea, Sudan, Somalia, Kenya, Djibouti, South Sudan, and Egypt connect its domestic stability to wider African and Middle Eastern geopolitical calculations. A major internal conflict would therefore place additional pressure on neighbouring states already facing their own security and humanitarian crises.
For Ethiopia, irrespective of whether Egypt, Eritrea, Sudan, or other external powers are involved in the current crisis — allegations that the governments concerned deny — a durable path toward stability requires more than military responses. The grievances of Amhara, Tigray, Oromia, and other communities need to be addressed through credible political dialogue between the federal centre and regional political forces. This includes civilian protection, cultural rights, accountability, political representation, and meaningful federal arrangements capable of creating a new political equilibrium.
The central issue is therefore not merely whether Addis Ababa can defeat armed opponents. It is whether Ethiopia can construct a political settlement in which the authority of the federal government is reconciled with the regional identities and political aspirations embedded within the country’s federal system. Military power can suppress an armed challenge, but it cannot by itself resolve the political grievances that repeatedly generate new challenges to the centre.
Ethiopia and other nations — including the Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan, Sudan, and countries across the Sahel — are already blighted by conflict, displacement, humanitarian suffering, and political instability. Yet Ethiopia occupies a particularly important position within Africa’s geopolitical architecture. Another prolonged Ethiopian war would therefore not simply represent another national tragedy. It could reverberate across the Horn of Africa, aggravate existing regional rivalries, place further pressure on neighbouring states, and create another major obstacle to the continent’s search for stability, development, and hope.
Modern Tokyo News is part of the Modern Tokyo Times group
http://moderntokyotimes.com Modern Tokyo Times – International News and Japan News
http://sawakoart.com – Sawako Utsumi and Modern Tokyo Times artist
https://moderntokyonews.com Modern Tokyo News – Tokyo News and International News
PLEASE JOIN ON FACEBOOK