Russian Federation arc is growing: Ukraine and the south

Russian Federation arc is growing: Ukraine and the south

Sawako Utsumi, Kanako Mita, and Lee Jay Walker

Modern Tokyo Times

The conflict in Ukraine appears to point in the direction of the Russian Federation growing an increasing arc from southern Ukraine – linked to Donetsk and the whole Donbas region – to the north and a threat to Kiev (Kyiv), or a containment policy to tie down Ukrainian forces. Hence, despite the rhetoric of Western political leaders alongside the anti-Russian Federation mass media, the economic blood of Ukraine is being strangled. 

The Russian Federation will have its other armed forces on a heightened alert across a vast landmass. This concerns the Baltic nations, Belarus (a friendly nation but wary of NATO and the possible intrigues of Poland), Scandinavia, and the Russian Far East. 

Also, the armed forces of the Russian Federation are supporting Syria against various Islamist forces backed by NATO Turkey in northern areas, maintaining peacekeepers in areas still controlled by Armenians in Nagorno-Karabakh that prevented the full loss to Azerbaijan, and the Russian Federation have their armed forces prepared in Tajikistan concerning events in Afghanistan. Similarly, the Russian Federation provided the main military forces that supported Kazakhstan in crushing the uprising in this nation. Therefore, an enormous contingency plan is needed for multiple military angles – especially given the open hostility of NATO nations in providing military equipment to Ukraine. 

The southern arc that links Odesa, Kherson, Crimea, Melitopol, Mariupol, Donetsk, Donbas, and all the way to Chernihiv and Chernobyl in the north would unleash enormous pressure on Ukraine. If the Russian Federation achieves this, it will lead to Ukraine being cut off from the Black Sea and the Sea of Azov. This, in turn, would link up with Transnistria and further increase the pressure on political elites in Kyiv. 

If the Russian Federation can control the 13 seaports in the south, this will lead to a major economic and psychological impact. Over 55 percent of all exports and approximately 50 percent of imports come from this region. Also, militarily, the Russian Federation can bring in fresh military supplies, improve logistics, cut off NATO ratlines, and support the humanitarian angle of feeding the population (map below from government of France concerning events on the ground now)

Hence, the armed forces of the Russian Federation can increase the pressure militarily on Kyiv even without taking the whole of the city. In a sense, it is tying down the Ukrainian armed force. Thereby freeing up other parts of Ukraine to release pressure on the armed forces of the Russian Federation in the south of the country. 

Unlike the American-led invasion of Iraq where many of the Iraqi population opposed Saddam Hussein (Kurds, the Shia, and others) – and where America didn’t face a hostile military bloc on its borders – the Russian Federation faces a motivated military foe. Thus – while facing the armed forces of Ukraine – the Russian Federation must maintain its vigilance from possible NATO intrigues in Poland, the Baltic region, Scandinavia, and the Russian Far East. This concerns the worst-case scenario of the conflict spreading. 

Overall, the Russian Federation is focused on a multifaceted angle not faced by any other nation in recent history. America utilized coalition forces in Vietnam, Iraq, and Libya and the outcomes were negative concerning Vietnam and then creating two failed states in Iraq and Libya. However, the Russian Federation desires economic prosperity after the conflict with Ukraine rather than the chaos unleashed afterward by America.

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